For example, a team playing home games in a park with a short right-field wall may load up on left-handed power hitters who are more likely to hit home runs. An opponent with predominantly right-handed batters may struggle in that venue. This is where MLB bettors get their edge.
Baseball comes with more numbers than any other sport as the leader of the analytics movement. Knowing where to look and what to avoid, is the key to success. Most baseball statistical are broken into splits. Home vs. Righties vs. Days of the week, months of the year, day vs.
How much experience does a batter have against a pitcher and vice versa. These stats are also great ways to find value when live betting. A team having success against a starting pitcher may quickly run dry when the manager turns to the bullpen.
Be sure to compare and contrast numbers over the course of a season to date vs. The same goes for pitchers. Are there any outlier starts poor or great that are skewing the numbers in either direction? For those teams who play in outdoor stadiums, weather forecasts are as important a tool as any.
The direction of the wind, whether toward home plate or over the center field wall, can greatly affect totals. Temperatures earlier in the season in environments such as Boston, New York or Cleveland can be cold and even come with snow. As the temperatures rise and weather improves, run totals are also likely to climb. Be wary of when rain is expected to hit in the middle of a game. Watch out for when the books are trying to steer the betting action in a particular direction. As noted above, a team like the Yankees will almost always be favored, or at the very least, will never be as big of an underdog as they may warrant.
Teams on prolonged winning or losing streaks will also fetch lower or higher odds based on public perception outside of the matchup on the field. Similarly, the totals for a team struggling to generate offense over a period of multiple games will slowly decline.
As the projections decrease, start betting the Overs. Additionally, it can mean betting against a widely favored team such as the Yankees, who will typically have lower odds — and their opponents have higher odds — than they should, as the books hedge against the public slant. Similar to betting against the public, casual bettors and fans never expect bad teams or underdogs to win twice in a row. As a result, their odds often stay inflated following a victory which may have been the result of good bullpen performance, defense or an offensive outburst.
Teams stringing together long winning streaks are usually doing so on the backs of their pitchers. Instead of simply betting the winning team to keep winning, bet the Under of their games, either as a standalone of by parlaying it with a moneyline or run line wager. Betting the Under on its own helps to hedge against the risk of an eventual loss. Oddsmakers will also artificially inflate the total when two winning teams are playing head-to-head.
The fans watching are looking for runs and the books take advantage of this fan desire. Bet the Under on outlier numbers. This strategy is best when a division leader is playing against a team on a losing streak.
The better team is obviously favored on both the moneyline and run line. While the losing team may be a massive underdog to win outright, they have a much better chance of losing by a single run. As mentioned above, most sportsbooks offer welcome bonuses to new users.
Understanding the rules of the bonuses and what goes into maximizing the potential earnings is key. One of the most common rules of the bonuses requires bettors to bet through the bonus amount a certain number of times. As sports betting rises in popularity, sportsbooks are creating more and more events.
Beyond the basics of the moneyline, run line and total for a complete game, bettors can also get action on individual innings or segments of a game. One can also bet on series scores and winners, especially come playoff time. Take advantage of these additional bet types as a way to boost your winning potential. There are enough statistics in baseball to support or disprove nearly any pick. Baseball stat keepers and sites such as Fangraphs are better than any other in breaking down splits by the situation.
Look deeper into the numbers for every underdog when searching for value. Has a team been hitting poorly of late? Is a team playing a road game in a venue with different dimensions than its home park? Is a team having more success against fly-ball or groundball pitchers?
Be on the lookout for parks where doubles can turn into home runs and boost the run totals. A point of contention within the fantasy baseball and MLB betting communities is the use of Batter vs. Pitcher statistics. Some like to highlight the one-on-one success of either against the other; however, the small sample sizes need to be acknowledged. Noting a batter has two home runs against a pitcher is fine and all, but over how long of a time period did it take?
What happened in those other at-bats? The success of a divisional rival against an entire opposing pitching staff, or vice versa, across the tenure of a manager or pitching coach is far more important. Also, avoid the temptation of big-payday parlays and teasers. Stick to individual games and events. A win is a win and you have a much better chance of long-term success by taking it slow and making a consistent profit, rather than looking to get rich quick and cash out.
As the odds vary, alter your investment for the desired return. Due to the number of games during an MLB season, there are more opportunities to win than in any other pro sport. Diversify your wagers for any one day while staying consistent with your number of bets. Stay even keel and change your approach before chasing lost money by betting bigger on higher odds.
Shop around at different books. With online betting gaining steam across the nation, try creating an account at every legal book in your state. Betting at just a single book can often leave money on the table, even if you win. Finally, avoid the big favorites and target more underdogs with plus-money returns.
MLB odds for February 10, Baltimore Orioles. Boston Red Sox. New York Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto Blue Jays. Chicago White Sox. Cleveland Indians. Detroit Tigers. Kansas City Royals. Minnesota Twins. Houston Astros. LA Angels. Oakland Athletics. Seattle Mariners. Texas Rangers. Atlanta Braves. Miami Marlins. New York Mets. Philadelphia Phillies. More on this to come. When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability.
In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line. There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability.
The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge. Start by adding the two probabilities together.
In our example, we had From the We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds. A couple of examples:. The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit.
Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees. As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Take advantage!
Dime lines are slowly disappearing as sports books look to make a larger profit during what is traditionally the slowest betting season. Several books still offer dime lines. Money lines change constantly. The listed money line the time you make your bet may be different from the money line when the game starts. The listed line on your ticket is your official odds, unless starting pitcher is changed.
This is explained later. You may wager that the total score of the game will be more or less than the number listed. It makes no difference which team wins. Simply add the final scores of each team. If either doesn't happen, the bet is refunded. A favorite must win by 2 runs or more, or the underdog must either: a Win the game. The payout varies according to the money line odds assigned to each outcome.
Note: Same rules apply to run line bets as totals. Baseball parlays are figured out by calculating the payout for the first game, based on the money line, then applying that amount to the next game, and so-forth. If a game is postponed for any reason, the parlay reduces by one team. The bet is treated as if the postponed game were never included in the parlay. Simply ask the betting attendant at your favorite sports book what your payout would be before placing the bet.
When making a baseball bet, you are betting team vs. You have the option to specify that either or both listed pitchers must start the game. Since baseball odds are determined on starting pitchers, any late pitching changes often force an adjustment in the odds. This will increase or decrease the payout on a winning ticket. However, if you list starting pitchers, and your pitcher doesn't start, then the bet is refunded. To bet on basketball, tell the ticket writer the bet number of the team you wish to bet, with the point spread, and the amount you wish to wager.
The Point Spread: When betting on basketball, the team you bet on must "cover the spread. The point spread is always placed to the immediate right of the team that is favored. In this example, if you bet the Bulls, the Bulls must win by 4 points for you to win your bet. If you bet the Lakers, any of the following will declare you a winner. If the Bulls win by exactly 3 points then the wager is declared a push and all money is refunded. Point spreads change constantly. The listed point spread the time you make your bet may be different from the point spread when the game starts.
The point spread that is listed on your ticket is your official spread. It makes no difference which team covers the spread. Simply add the final score of each team. You may combine several teams into one wager. Odds and the number of teams vary from casino to casino.
The following are approximate odds:. Any game that results in a push reduces the parlay one team. A two-team parlay would become a straight bet. This increases the probability of winning your bet but decreases the odds of the parlay. Odds and the number of points available to "tease" vary from casino to casino.
To bet on boxing, tell the ticket writer the bet number of the boxer you wish to bet and the amount you wish to wager. Boxing odds are shown using a "Money Line. A "minus" - preceding the number indicates a favorite.
Tyson is favored to win the bout. Boxing matches often feature money line proposition wagers on knockouts, draws, rounds and the duration of the fight. Odds vary on each fight. To bet on football, tell the ticket writer the bet number of the team you wish to bet, with the point spread and the amount you wish to wager. The point spread: When betting on football, the team you bet on must "cover the spread.
If you bet the Dolphins, the Dolphins must win by 7 points for you to win your bet. If you bet the Jets, any of the following will declare you a winner. The listed point spread at the time you make your bet may be different from the point spread when the game starts. In some cases, bettors have the option to discard the point spread and bet on which team will win. This is called betting on the "Money Line".
Sports books offer a number of different cards, each one having different rules. Rules for parlay cards are placed on the back of each card. Read them carefully before wagering. The cards are simple to fill out. Simply darken the boxes, or circles, that apply to the teams you wish to parlay. Then darken the amount you want to bet. Sportsbooks offer bettors the opportunity to wager on the outcome of a season -- for example, which team will win the Super Bowl or the Stanley Cup or the American League East pennant.
This is known as "futures book" or "future book" betting. As an illustration, let's look at Super Bowl futures. For example, the Ravens may be , the Redskins , the Cardinals , etc. It does not matter whether your team covers the point spread in the Super Bowl. For the purposes of future book betting, the team has to win only the Super Bowl.
When you make a futures bet, your odds are "locked in. Futures betting also is offered on the major events in horse racing, such as the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup. In horse racing futures, if your horse does not start the race due to injury or any other reason, you lose the bet -- there are no refunds. On the other hand, the odds on your horse racing futures bet also are "locked in," regardless of the horse's odds on race day.
Some sportsbooks offer futures betting on unusual propositions, such as which major league baseball player will hit the most home runs in the regular season. Note that in this type of wager, all bets are action regardless of injuries or other unforeseen events. This type of wager is typically found on pro football and major league baseball, and sometimes on pro basketball. If the Yankees go on to win 94 or more games, the "over" is a winner.
If they win 92 or fewer games, the "under" is a winner. If they win exactly 93, the bet is a push and tickets are refunded. Among Las Vegas gamblers, golf is considered one of the two fastest-growing sports to bet on auto racing is the other. The most basic form of golf betting involves picking the winner of a tournament. Typically a sports book will list 30 or more individual golfers along with a field all others option, at various odds.
Another popular form of golf betting involves matchup propositions, in which two golfers are paired against each other in a head-to-head wager, with a betting line on each golfer set by the oddsmaker. The golfer with the better lower score wins the matchup. If one golfer continues play in the tournament after his opponent misses the cut, the golfer who continues play wins the matchup. For example, a matchup may pit Lehman minus against Jim Furyk plus Some matchups pit one usually very good golfer against two or more others.
To determine the winner, take Woods' score and compare with to the best lowest score recorded by the three others. If he finishes first, second or third in the tournament, the "under" wins; if he finishes fourth or worse, the "over" tickets cash. Rules vary by casino, but usually your golfer must tee off in the tournament for "action" meaning once he tees off, you will either win or lose your bet. If for some reason he does not tee off, this is usually considered "no action" and tickets are refunded.
To bet on hockey, tell the ticket writer the bet number of the team you wish to bet and the amount you wish to wager. If your team covers the goal spread, you win. The payout is based on a "Money Line". When betting on hockey, the team you bet on must "cover the spread. The Red Wings must win the game by at least two goals to be a winner. If you bet on the Sharks, you win your bet if: a The Sharks win the game. Note: The money line is used in conjunction with the point spread.
The Rangers are projected to prevail. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game. This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come. When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.
There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money.
To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge. Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had From the We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.
A couple of examples:. The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions.
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